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Old 07-12-2005, 10:49 PM
MrJinx MrJinx is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 28
Default Re: WSOP Main Event Day 1 Hand: Call or Fold?

1. Do you really think there is a 5-10% chance of a stonecold bluff here? It's a 6 handed pot, there are still
two limpers and the preflop raiser behind UTG+2. What type of hands would a tight player have here in early position that he could be bluffing stonecold with?

2. Axclubs...again, conservative player preflop, playing in early position. Even if he's getting splashy, A5c is probably the lowest possible hand here. That makes 5 hands in which he has 12 outs(A5c-A9c), one hand in which he has 14 outs (ATc) and one hand in which you have 4 outs (AQc). AJo, QTo, QJo, KQo and ATo are possabilities here, but you have to lower their probability as it is doubtful that a player would want to put his World Series on the line with such weak draws and the flush draw on board (the checkraise-allin line lowers their probabilities). JTo is a very strong possability here. QTc makes sense here also, which would be a coinflip.

3. Agree with your reasoning here, although a limp is more and more likely with JJ or TT as the stacks are deep around the table and UTG opted to limp.

I think the math is flawed here as the line taken by UTG+2 (myself) on this hand severely limits some of the hands listed by yourself as strong possibilities.
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