Re: Boyd eliminated
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Well, give me some hands. AT may be a bad hand for implied odds, because you mostly have to flop an ace to win, but it seems like an excellent hand to have against KK overall.
I don't think the odds are 12-1, I think they're more like 8-1, aren't they? How many hands without an ace are really 8-1 to be ahead of KK on the flop?
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I think you are right to say 8-1. It's 12-1 assuming Greg is 100% toi win when he calls, which of course is wrong. He's calling 50K to see a flop for a shot at a 600K pot, but his equity after the push is never the full 600. (edited to say I'm an idiot - the 200 he calls with can't be counted for him... so somewhere south of 8-1, like 6 or 7 to 1)
That said, any pair is a good place to start. Even discounting a bit for the chance of set over set and the chance of catching a K on the turn or river, letting Raymer see the flop with a pp for only 50K more is a mistake. I gotta think the medium suited connectors too. Is there a tool that can calculate this somewhere... i.e. what % of flops is XX ahead of YY? Even if I'm wrong strictly based on hand values, the fact that he's OOP with a smaller stack has to factor in too, specifically the fact that he knows he has to fear the ace. If Raymer has no ace and an ace hits, some percentage of the time KK gets pushed off the best hand. Plus every time Raymer has an ace and an ace hits, he takes the pot down. Raymer with AT know thatuntil he sees the flop action, but KK knows it.
Re your FTOP post, that makes sense. I guess I'm saying you can't evaluate a play based on the FTOP because there's incomplete information.
KK wins equity if he makes AT make a mistake compared with if they had complete information.
KK makes the right play, a different thing, when he makes the play most likely to cause his opponents range of hands to make a mistake . (Which is, of course, why I say AT is a worse hand for implied odds, than say 88, even though vs KK specifically that isn't the case)
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