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Old 07-12-2005, 01:57 PM
Disconnected Disconnected is offline
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Default Re: Aces, the river pairs the board, and I check/raise...

Seems like a lot of folks are saying to pop him on the turn, but I wouldn't. Hero raised pre-flop and led the flop. Flop is pretty drawless. Turn doesn't help that much for draws, yet now Hero -- the only aggressor so far -- is raised and cold-called behind.

Let's forget about MP3 for now, and assume he's just calling down with a weak made hand or a draw (maybe a bad assumption, but so far, he's shown no aggression).

BB could be raising without having us beat now as a bluff/semi-bluff to both knock out MP3 or even get us to fold. He could be slow-playing 2-pair or set from the flop. He could have just made 2-pair on the turn. He could be overplaying TP.

Without reads, I think we need to give him credit for being ahead of us often enough to make a 3-bet less profitable OOP (we probably won't be able to get a free showdown). Also, MP3 has already called 2 cold, so we wouldn't be able to knock him out to get it HU against BB.

The river is really interesting. A lot of the ways we were behind just got counterfeited. So, I would want to get something into the pot, here. If they realize that (and it applied to them), it would get checked through if we try for a check-raise. Plus, if we're beat, we'll get 3-bet, and I think we need to call, so that would suck. OTOH, if we are ahead, check-raising could net us another 1-2 BB.

I think that since we definitely want to get chips in when we're ahead, and since I would feel obligated to call a 3-bet if we check-raised, I'd probably bet out the river. But I think it's pretty close vs. unknowns.
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