Results/Thoughts
OK, I'm pretty sure I've pulled this move twice. Once was with 76s in that HH that was posted not by me. This is the second time. This is a move that I would try with AA/KK here occasionaly, even overlimping, because the blinds were quite aggressive against limpers here. That's why I thought his raise was more steal-ish. Also he raised big and most people don't routinely raise bigger out of the blinds, they only raise bigger when it is a steal and they don't want action. So I figured I would take it down preflop about 75% of the time and then on the flop probably 75% of the time that I didn't take it down preflop. If those numbers are even close to right, I think it's +EV, right? Hmmm...
+10 75%
+30 19%
-50 6%
->EV = 10
So my initial plan was just to limp in. Then I thought the guy was stealing, so I thought I would re-steal. That worked okay, except for that moron who I didn't think would muck up the works. After all, he had showed no strength. Most people don't put in 20% of their stack with a hand that they just limped in with...
Anyways, on the flop, I still thought I had a TON of fold equity, so I have to fire a bet there. I thought 30 would be enough to get the job done while still leaving me with a little bit of ammo in case that became necessary later.
On the turn, I had basically given up. I didn't have much ammunition left and if he was on a draw (I thought that was pretty likely at this point, because otherwise he would have been pretty likely to c/r all-in) he was certainly going to call on the turn and then beat my 6 high with his missed draw. I also had a miraculous gutshot to hope for, so I think it is a very very easy check behind on the turn.
Then on the river, he took a long time. He ran his time almost all the way down to zero. I was afraid that he was going to bluff all-in with the best hand and I would have to fold. I was also thinking that if he checked, did that mean he was going to call down? I wasn't sure if it would be +EV to fire again on the river if he checked. Also, should I fire all-in, or less? Sometimes they call all-in because they think it is a bluff, when they will fold to slightly less. I wasn't sure what I would do. I didn't need him to fold very often in this $100 pot to make a $25 bet correct. In any case, he finally bet...$15. In a $100 pot, with only $50 behind, he bet $15. Could you possibly be any weaker? I felt like this was 100% a pathetic attempt to bluff with a missed draw. Previously he had pushed all-in several times. That usually says to me that he is pushing all-in with made hands, including some marginal ones. These guys always want calls when they push in. They are idiots and really don't sometimes want calls because their hands are marginal and they will only get called by better hands, but they think that they have something good like two pair and they want a call on their cool looking bets. In any case, I was pretty certain that this was a bluff from a missed draw. So I pushed in. And he folded. Happy land!
But I won't probably won't pull this again until I'm playing higher stakes and/or have deeper stacks.
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