[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume all my assumptions are correct and analyse this hand from the turn on. Villian always has either AQ or AJ. Villian Folds 100% of the time i raise the turn. He calls 100% i bet the river ($250). And I pay him off every time he hits his straight ($300)

40 river cards i win whats in the pot now (210 + 75) plus $250 on the river. 4 river cards i lose the $75 that i call on the turn and $300 dollars on the river.

(535*40 - 375 *4)/44 = $452 EV

If i raise now i win what's in the pot

(210 + 75) = $285EV

Clearly, if all my assumptions are correct, slowplaying here is best by quite a bit. The question is, how certain do i need to be about my assumptions?

EDIT: if my math is wrong here please let me know (i'm not sure i'm thinking about this correctly)

[/ QUOTE ]
Aggie, your math seems slightly flawed to me(i think u dont wanna see about 7 cards on the river :if he has AQ then 3 queens and 4 jacks, and vice versa), but the problem i have is your reasoning that he will fold to a turn bet but call a river unimproved. I think he would probably only call river when he hit his two pair, but in that case, you dont know if he has a straight or 2 pair, and if he checked it to you, you might be hesitant to bet too.