Some math and some more thoughts:
Let's assume all my assumptions are correct and analyse this hand from the turn on. Villian always has either AQ or AJ. Villian Folds 100% of the time i raise the turn. He calls 100% i bet the river ($250). And I pay him off every time he hits his straight ($300)
40 river cards i win whats in the pot now (210 + 75) plus $250 on the river. 4 river cards i lose the $75 that i call on the turn and $300 dollars on the river.
(535*40 - 375 *4)/44 = $452 EV
If i raise now i win what's in the pot
(210 + 75) = $285EV
Clearly, if all my assumptions are correct, slowplaying here is best by quite a bit. The question is, how certain do i need to be about my assumptions?
EDIT: if my math is wrong here please let me know (i'm not sure i'm thinking about this correctly)
|