Villain is Loose (39% V$PIP) and generally passive both preflop (0% PFR after 67 hands) and post flop (1.3 TAF).
I figured that I could push out any higher flush draws with my $15 re-raise, push out most players with an A-high pair/good kicker, and have some outs if I run into a set.
Basically, this is a big semi-bluff in a multi-way pot.
If I have to go to the river against AK (no clubs), here's my equity:
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kd 494 49.90 496 50.10 0 0.00 0.499
8c 7c 496 50.10 494 49.90 0 0.00 0.501
So, I'm a coin flip (slightly ahead if an Ax caller/raiser has no clubs).
Worst case, I'm a 7:3 underdog against a set that has no clubs (slightly worse if the set has a club).
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2s 2d 692 69.90 298 30.10 0 0.00 0.699
8c 7c 298 30.10 692 69.90 0 0.00 0.301
Meanwhile, against a higher flush draw that calls, I'm still doing pretty well because I've already made a small pair on the flop.
So, was this play and call OK? Or was the play OK, and the call bad? Or was this just chip spewing?
Thanks.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)
converter
MP1 ($22.20)
MP2 Villain ($32.82)
MP3 ($51.15)
Hero ($51.05)
Button ($15.10)
SB ($18.25)
BB ($52.24)
UTG ($18.65)
UTG+1 ($33.75)
UTG+2 ($19.50)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $1, MP2 Villain calls $1, MP3 calls $1, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">
3 folds</font>.
Flop: ($5.35) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $3</font>, MP1 folds, Villain calls $3, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, UTG folds, Villain calls $28.82 (All-In), MP3 folds, Hero calls $16.82.
Comments?