[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm comparing calling and raising. In other words I'm trying to decide if its worth putting an additional bet into the 10.25 BB pot beyond the 1 I'm putting in to call. Not counting the 1 BB that goes in for the call is doing the math wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]
Since this is not HU, let's make some simple assumptions about UTG. Let's assume that he'll call if BB calls and fold if BB 3-bets. Let's also assume that BB is behind to the CO right now, and that if the BB 3-bets, the CO will cap with a certain probability p. Then, BB is getting 11.25:1 (counting the bet that UTG will put in if BB calls) to call and 6.625 - 1.5417*p to 1 if he 3-bets. In other words, if BB 3-bets and is behind, his odds vary linearly with p between 6.625:1 and 5.083:1.

Not very good, eh? Certainly not unless the flush draw is still good.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think counting a 7 high flush draw as outs is ridiculously optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're wrong. If BB can get it heads up going to the river this flush should frequently be good. Why is TT one of only 3 hands you can have that don't contain a dominating club? Or, more generally, what do you feel the CO's hand range is, and why?

[/ QUOTE ]
CO posted and raised preflop, but his raise is unlikely to be a steal because UTG had already limped into the pot. So CO has something at that point, but his range is pretty broad. The flop does not provide much information, but the turn does. CO is very unlikely to have 97, so he's saying he has a made flush, overpair with a big club, a set, or a lone Ac. The only good flush draws for BB are if the CO has a set.