Re: 1st WSOP 2005 hand,how would YOU have played it? X-Post
Ugh.
What a sick situation. Sorry, Pal.
Anyway, this hand is more difficult than most are making it out to be. In my first ME experience, a few things were at play that I found unusual.
1) The standard play with QQ or JJ was open-limp. Most people at my table on day one played them like a small pair.
2)Most people played very timidly, and were deathly afraid of being beaten even with ultra-strong hands. This item and #1 above make JJ a real possibility.
3) You know there have to be a ton of donkeys in the field, but you don't immediately know who you're up against. This kid's plays were reasonable, given the conditions I've mentioned: in most cases, his opponent must have a set/2 pair to call on the flop (and nobody is playing J7/J5/75 at this stage, except maybe me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).
I think you're going bust with this hand if you pursue a good line on the flop. Meaning, 3000 is the most you can make it and still potentially get away from it if he pushes, but that small reraise invites a push with a semibluffing hand like a straight and flush draw. I think a call is best. On the turn, the 8 is not the worst straight card (a 6 or T would complete a double belly buster), and you still have the two clubs to protect against. I guess the debatable spot is whether to bet the turn, if you're willing to call a check-raise. I'd be inclined to check behind, and take the chance that he hits. Plus, I could fill up when he hits, in which case I'm getting it all in happily. But I certainly can see betting the turn. Once you get raised there, you can only beat 222, unless he's crazy. Problem is, he could be.
Tough hand.
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