Re: Pocket 6\'s with M=4
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Home game. Started with 22 players, currently down to 2 tables of 6 each. Top 4 places pay. I have T4900. Villain in this case is table chipleader with around T9000. Other stacks are slightly higher or lower than mine. Blinds are 400/800, but are going up to 600/1200 in next 2 or 3 hands. Villain is a solid thinking player who has used his big stack to his advantage and has played fairly aggressively once he got the chip lead.
Villain open-raises UTG to 2000. I am next to act with pocket 6's. Fold, call or push?
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Push
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FOLD
Do you really think that the Villain is folding any kind of a hand here getting 2:1? He'll make a relucant call with his QTo and a lot of other hands that we don't want to see, including overpairs and other good hands. There's also still the issue of 4 players left to be heard from. Pushing here is straight gambling.
Kings
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I would like him to fold, but I will make this play assuming he wont. FWIW, I want to see QTo. >50/50 chance to have over 10K, and runaway chip lead at a short table. Explain to me why I dont LOVE that situation?
Gambling, yes.
+CEV, yes
You have 4800 chips.
In 3 hands you will have 3400. So, forget the pipe dreams of F.E. you wont be making anymore bets that someone will be getting less than 2-1 to call you unless you double up.
If you want, give me a range, I will run a $EV calc. I really cant see anything other than pushing here. Is it a gamble, absolutely, but Im not going to cash in this tournament without gambling.
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