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Old 07-11-2005, 08:19 AM
Myrtle Myrtle is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 388
Default Re: My Bustout Hand--Oh The Humanity!!

First of all, my sympathies for the bust out in this manner....You’ve got to be somewhat shell-shocked and feeling pretty down.....it hurts.....been there.

As far as the hand goes................

[ QUOTE ]
Table generally trying to play solid. Nobody too dangerous.

9 seat is the weakest player at the table. He seems a little lost, betting strange amounts, calling a lot, etc., but somehow he has 51K in chips, just like me (FORESHADOWING ALERT).

[/ QUOTE ]

Your ‘read’ here might be the most important thing. Sounds to me as if you’ve got him nailed as someone who’s still there based upon his somewhat weak/loose play. If so, these guys are always a problem, it’s damned hard to put them on a hand with any kind of authority.

In any case, knowing all the facts, here’s what I think........

Although I probably would have limped with his hand UTG, I really don’t have a huge problem with his T2200 raise. He makes a pot sized raise from UTG with a suited QJ. Why does he do this? What’s HIS ‘read’ on the rest of the table? What are the other stack sizes? You say the table is ‘generally solid’......

After his raise of T2200, there is now T4300 in the pot.

I take it that you’re in MP with your KK? You call his T2200 and raise him T3200 making the pot T9700? Is this correct? He needs to put in T3200 to call......T9700/T3200...just about 3:1. So, being last to act, he calls you H/U, for less than 10% of his stack with a speculative drawing hand.

One could say that your pf rr was too small, but, you still had players to act behind you, so if it is an error, I don’t think it’s a big one.

With the no Ace flop, he bets about half of the pot. Hmmm.........ok, of the range of hands that you stated that you put him, you’re worried about 4 of ‘em...AA, TT, 99, 66. I think that I would have discounted AA, as I believe he would have come back at you pf, had he had them. So, now it’s down to ‘Did he get lucky and flop a set’?

The A didn’t flop, and you’ve got a strong overpair to the board, which is also both flush and straight coordinated. I can’t put him on flopping a straight to that board, but both the flush & straight draws do concern me.

Decision time in the valley for Rushmore............You’ve got a strong hand, and you want to get paid off vs. you don’t want this guy drawing out on you. I think that you have to takes your edge here and play it strong. There’s now T18,900 in the pot after his bet.......and you’ve got about T46,000 left? I’d re-raise him around T19K or T20K. It totally distorts any drawing odds that he has, and if he does call, he’s made a major mistake. If he has the set, he’ll come over the top at you, and you can still let the hand go.....

Your T15K rr makes the pot T33,900, and he has to put in T9K.....T34/T9 = 3.77 and he has 15 outs. Looks like you priced him into the pot?

Of course, the freaking K comes, giving you your set, and now it’s very hard for you to let it go, as the only hand that has you beat is what he had.

So, I think the key here is your read............. Will he let the hand go if you pop him HARD on the flop?
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