[newfant]

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Who check raises this turn?

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Interesting idea.

If villain is a true TAG (and in my PokerTracker database I only see about 3 true TAGs over the 5000 hands I've played), then I estimate his range as AK, AQ, AJs and TT-AA. So, he will have overcards here 36 times out of 66 or 55% of the time (is that math right?).

If we check-raise, we are putting 2 BBs into a 6.75BB pot, so if he would fold his overcards here even 30% of the time this play should be profitable (especially given our likely outs).

However, if villian only raises AK and TT-AA UTG, then he only has overcards 16/46 times or 35% and he would need to fold his overcards almost every time for this to be profitable. Actually, we prolly need to exclude A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] from being folded so his likelihood of folding here is prolly no better than 32%.

I think I'm going to try this play in the future and see how it works out. Thanks for the suggestion.