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Old 07-09-2005, 01:40 PM
soah soah is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 112
Default Re: Do you/Can you/Would you fold KK here?

Your logic is flawed.

On the flop you've got six outs against every hand that he is beating you with (4 Q and 2K )and blockers to his QQ. Just get all-in on the flop and hope for the best.

Having six outs is not much to cheer about. If I thought I had six outs I would fold, not raise.

AK or QQ is just as likely as JJ TT AA.

99 should be included too.

Now at showdown both AK and QQ are going to beat you roughly 30% of the time. You are going to beat AA JJ TT roughly 25% of the time. This would changes the odds to 9.4 to 9 which means you will win this matchup slightly more than half the time.

Unimproved AK isn't going to showdown with you, unless you're planning to give him two free cards to get there.

Basically the idea is to keep something like AK or QQ betting as long possible b/c against these two hands you are a favorite and you will be against them at least 1/2 the time

I thought your plan was to go all-in on the flop? You can't have your cake and eat it too. Either you're blowing AK out on the flop and taking the worst of it against AA-99, or you're letting AK/QQ see more cards to try to catch up.

Raising the flop is a poor idea b/c it lets these hands of easy. You may want to consider a passive calling route while folding to an A or 8 on the turn or river.

Again, your initial plan was to get all-in on the flop.

If you check and call and try to improve your hand, you will continue to not have any clue where you are at no matter what comes. If you catch blanks then you still lose to sets and AA. If you catch a Q you lose to AK. If you catch a king you lose to QQ. You don't know what card you want to catch, and all of the cards that improve you put four to a straight on the board. This reduces your implied odds to almost nil. Once again, you are in a position to only get your money in the pot when your hand is no good.

Which means if you raise the river all-in and get called you will be profitably over 60% of time.

No one is going to value bet the river when any king makes a straight, unless they have a king. Even if they do bet it, they aren't calling a raise with it. Raising the river with an obvious one-card non-nut straight cannot possibly be +EV except against the absolute worst of fish.

It's not about having the best hand. It's about having the best hand when the money goes in. And this is not a good situation for it.

I would suggest that you reread TOP. Especially the sections on effective odds and reverse implied odds.

I don't see what the big deal is here. The guy tried to trap a little with his KK and make sure he extracted value from the hands he was beating. On the flop he's no longer beating most of the hands he was beating preflop, so he cuts his losses. It happens sometimes. You can't win em all.
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