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Old 07-09-2005, 03:42 AM
Harv72b Harv72b is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Baltimore, MD
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Default Re: Party 5/10, waiting until the river to raise donk bettor

Most of the time I will raise the turn in a HU situation like this one. Other times I will raise immediately on the flop, hoping to be 3-bet so I can call that and raise the turn anyway. Which line I take is almost entirely mood dependent, although I'm more likely to fastplay it vs. a tough, aggressive opponent (who is more likely to check call the turn even if I only call his flop bet).

I will very rarely wait until the river to raise, for a multitude of reasons:

-Sometimes you get 3-bet, as in this hand, and have no idea what that means. You look to be pretty safe in this instance with the board pairing on the turn & most players on 5/10 likely to have raised TT from UTG (basically you're only likely to be behind if he has 77 or A3s, maybe a miracle river vs. 88), but I like to define my hand before the river so I'm not often put in the position of calling river 3-bets.
-Sometimes your opponent was betting a draw the whole way (fairly likely on this flop), and will check/fold the river if he misses it, when he would gladly call your raise on the turn.
-A savvy opponent will check/call the river, especially on such a drawy, raggy board, with anything that doesn't beat your overpair. This of course makes waiting to raise the river a bad option.
-If a scare card comes on the river, this makes your planned raise more difficult to pull off. For example, change that river card to the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or worse still T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and tell me if you'd still want to hit that "raise" button. Your aces may well still be good, and in fact probably are, but many of us have a lot of trouble putting in a raise on the river when there's such an obvious possibility that we've just been beaten. A good thing when your opponent did indeed just draw out on you (unless he would have folded to a raise on an earlier street), but often a missed bet when your hand is good.

Basically, the only time I'll take this line is when I either flop a set on a relatively safe board, or when for whatever reasons I can very confidently put my opponent on a smaller, unimproved pocket pair. The latter situation may well apply in this case, but without a more detailed read I can't really say.
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