Re: Pythagorean Baseball Win Formula
Ah yes, another example of totally useless statistics that can't be used to predict a damn thing!
I also HATE imposing artificial, albeit "natural", assumptions such as the fitted line passing through (0,0) because if R=RA the record is expected to be .500.
Pitching dominates baseball. It isnt uncommon for a team has three relative aces and two dogs, and average hitting, they are going to win a lot of 1 run games, and get blown out in a lot of games, so their record may be far better than .500 despite R <= RA. I suspect something like that is what is going on in the Toronto numbers that year. (An alternative explanation is injuries at some point in the season that led to them fielding two "different teams".)
Baseball may be the sport where statistics are most valuable in decision making (hit and run, bunt, sacrifice etc.). As far as predicting results, though, statistics are by far most valuable in hockey, where results are dominated even more by the goalie than baseball is by pitchers (because the same goalie plays 75% of the games, but the same pitcher only 20-25% of the games). In fact betting on Stanley Cup futures just before they start has been profitable based on a single statistic for each team in 13 out of the last 15 years, including this one!
|