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Old 07-08-2005, 10:46 AM
gomberg gomberg is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Chicago
Posts: 22
Default Re: Top set against a suspected flushdraw

First off, a preflop reraise is a must here w/ many hands, especially a hand as strong as JJ. I just don't like other people getting away w/ min-raises especially if they do it w/ weakish, speculative hands (like most people do).

As far as the turn, lets look at some situations.

First, lets look at the hands he can have.

a) 2-pair or set - he's drawing almost dead and you'll get his money no matter what, so we don't worry about this situation.

b) 1-pair - he's drawing slim (gut-shot maybe) - you want him to call a decent bet

c) flush draw - you want him to make a mistake and call a decent bet

d) combo draw - he could have many outs against you - you want him to call a huge bet or fold to a big bet.

e) made straight - he's getting your money, so you won't worry about this one either

The pot is $100 and he has roughly $300 left. How much to bet.

1) $50. If he calls, the pot will be $200 and he will have $250 left on the river. If he has a straight / flush draw then he has plenty of leverage to call you here and not be making a mistake if he can get $100 off you on the river if he hits. This is only good if he's drawing dead and won't call any more money on this street if you bet bigger and you can get away on the river if outdrawn. Probably a bad option vs. his draws.

2) $100. Pot will be $300 on river and he'll have $200 left on the river. At this point w/out a read, you'll probably have to call an all-in on the river given 2.5:1 odds no matter what card hits. This means you're giving implied odds of 4:1. This is not enough for any hand unless he has a big combo draw. The question is will he call this. If he'll call this with a draw and a good made hand, then this is a good sized bet.

3) $150. Pot will be $400 and he'll have $150 left on river. Obviously this would be great if he'll call here. If you think there's a decent chance of a call of a overbet w/ a draw, then go for it - but against any decent player, they will fold a draw here - which is not what you want.

So in conclusion, I think the $100 bet is by far the best choice given no other information. If you think this guy will raise a weak bet, then go for the $50, but it is risky giving a cheap card on that board becuase it can kill river action and/or make you make a big mistake on the river (folding the best hand or paying off w/ the worst).
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