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Old 06-23-2003, 12:21 PM
irchans irchans is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 157
Default Re: Baseball Probability Question

>Team Winning Percentage = (runs scored^2) / (runs scored^2 + runs allowed^2).

That is very cool! Can you find the reference for this formula in a book or article. I would be very interested.



I notice that formula is not correct for the exact question that I posted if r, s, and n are small. For example if there is one white ball (r = 1), and n-1 black balls (s=n-1), and n bins, then the only possible way to distribute the balls is one ball per bin, so the white balls exceed the black balls in exactly one bin. Then the win percent is exactly 1/n whereas the Team Winning Percentage formula gives 1/(n^2+1).

Cheers,
Irchans
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