[fnord_too]

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This could be turned into a really cool math problem.
I wish I had time to devote to it.

I think boils down to this: You don't gain much value by raising the turn (you're either way behind or slightly ahead), but you open a big gap for a thinking opponent to exploit. Donk isn't folding so you're not going to gain in that way. Also, your raise for value will cause you to also lose any potential bluff bets on the river.

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Give me some hand ranges and I can crank out the math pretty quickly.

I think there are 16BB in the pot when it gets to him, assuming donk is going to call down at this point calling down costs 2BB to win 19 (assuming UTG bets the river). I suppose the donk has hearts. I can think of a few possible hands for UTG, but JJ seems most likely, followed by AK and AA. Maybe he has AJ or 88, too. Counting in the last two, hero is drawing dead to 7 of the combinations, has 2-3 outs (depending on whether the K is a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or not) to 6 combinations, and is even with 6 combinations.

So, if a heart comes hero is dead, -1BB (assuming he can fold on the end when the flush gets there)
If a heart does not come (and donk does not have something like a pair + flush draw at this point, but that only matters if UTG has AK, too, and donk hits one of his 5 non flushing outs):
6/19 he wins 9.5BB
7/19 he loses 2BB
6/19 combinations he an EV of about -.7BB

SO EV of calling (lets just say the flush is 4:1 to get there) is:
(0.2)(-1) + 0.8 * ((6/19)(9.5) + (7/19)(-2) + (6/19)(-.7)) = +1.43BB

If my wild ass assumptions are right this is a clear call down due to the possibility that UTG has AK. Raising is clearly wrong since you are less than 50% to split (or are drawing to 2-3 outs) and all you are hoping to do by raising is take an extra 1/2BB from the donk. This is +EV enough that the possibility of donk having 5 more outs than his flushing outs can't swing it to -EV, but if hands like 88, A8, etc. are in donk's range that might swing it. Also, even if hero cannot fold on the end when the flush gets there, this is still +EV.

Oh well, this is all pre coffee analysis, and I certainly don't feel comfortable putting these people on hands since I am completely unfamiliar with the game and the players.