Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
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I agree. Things went very well for the OP in this hand.
He flopped a boat against (apparently) two flushes. It doesn't get much better than that. I think the 20BB pot is closer to the maximum he'd expect to get, not the the average.
I haven't done the math, but if you consider his average set pot value at closer to 15 or 16 BBs, rather than twenty, I suspect any EV will disappear.
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take two things in consideration:
-hero will put in more than 33% of the money in the pot on average if he stays to the end since it is not sure that both opponents stay to the end.
-if hero is beat with a set or better, someone else must have an extremely strong hand. that means the average pot when he is beaten should be higher than when his hand is good.
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according to my calculations, with an average pot of 20 BB (highly unrealistic) the cold call would be marginal. with 15 BB (still too high) it would be a clear fold.
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