Re: Is knowing the true odds that important
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Hi all, I'm a profitable sng player (35% roi) but still have a poor knowledge of pot odds etc. How much of a hole is this in my game.
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That depends on how far off your intuition is, but it's likely to not be THAT far off.
To take a simple example, you have a 4-flush and villain threatens to set you all-in on the flop with his TPTK or overpair. You are around 34% to win (34.97% for the flush to come in, but he might get a runner-runner full house). You break even, in terms of expected number of chips, if he sets you all-in with a (very slightly larger than) pot-sized bet. You make money if you pay less, you lose money if you pay more, but not much, if it is close: if it takes a 1½-pot-sized bet to set you all in, calling is a -9% proposition. (You pay 1.5 units and get back 34% of 4 units = 1.36 units) That's no way to make money in a ring game, but it's not the worst bet any of us has ever taken, and in a SnG, losing the money you've already committed might cripple your chances of making the money badly enough that you'll happily take a 34% chance of doubling up.
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