Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
I agree with W. Deranged here. I think you're over-estimating your implied odds. By my calculations, there is about a 16% chance by the river that the overpair will have made its set (4 cards to hit 45/47*44/46*43/45*42/44). You will lose alot on those hands. Sometimes the board will come 4 hearts when you don't fill. Once in a while the maniac will beat your set. Even on the board you flopped, the Aces still have 4 outs (a ten screws you)
I'd be interested in seeing a showdonw win% assuming you flop a six and are against AA and a random hand. If I get a chance I'll run it on TTH.
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