[Iceman]

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Someone asked recently on RGP why regular 5 card draw isn't played much anymore. One person responded that it was too easy for the pros to win. That is, there wasn't enough luck! An inferior player would walk away a winner only in only about 10% of his sessions, and would soon realize his inferiority and stop playing. Whereas in Texas Hold Em, a fish can play for quite some time before realizing he's getting the worst of it, due to the tremendous amount of luck involved and the huge swings. If true, this makes sense.

What I'm wondering is why it's true? What is it about draw poker, a game of virtually no information other than number of cards drawn, that makes it so easy for the pros to clobber the fish? I've skimmed through Caro's section on 5 card draw in SS1, but nothing makes it really clear why the game is more beatable than Hold Em or Stud or Omaha. Thoughts?

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In draw, the best hand out there is almost always a large favorite over other hands predraw. In holdem, Omaha, and stud, legitimate hands usually run close in value preflop and on the flop or on 3rd-5th streets in stud. As a result, loose calls early in the hand tend to be a much more serious error in draw than in stud or flop games.

In holdem, Omaha, and stud, once the pots get large it is often correct to chase to the river even when you know someone has a better hand (and when it is a mistake to chase in a large pot with a reasonable draw it is usually only a small one). In draw, the pots tend to be much smaller (and as before the best hand's edge tends to be much larger), meaning that chasing can easily be a major mistake.

Finally, the fewer betting rounds and smaller pot sizes in draw mean that river play becomes much more important (while in holdem, Omaha, and stud river play is often automatic), and this favors the more skillful players.