[elindauer]

Have you noticed that there are many common situations in the current game, particularly online, where you can know with near certainty that someone will bet?

One thing I've been thinking about lately is that this certainty must represent a mistake of some sort by my opponents. It's as though players have elliminated some of their options. This can't be good for them, can it? I've been wondering how I should adjust my strategy to best take advantage of this mistake. Here are a few thoughts I've come up with. Maybe you can add your own.


case 1. Blind steal. Someone raises and it's folded to me in the big blind. I know that if I call and check the flop, they will always bet. Because I know this, calling and check-raising is always superior to 3-betting and leading, since my hand is less clearly defined for my opponent, and he's more likely to make big postflop mistakes. That's right, I'm saying you should just call with aces, kings, AK, everything you'd normally 3-bet and lead, instead call and check-raise any time you're heads up.

scenario 2: I raise, and someone 3-bets me. I know that if I call and check, he'll bet the flop every time. Like in scenario 1, I can take advantage of this by simply calling and check-raising any hand that I would have capped.


Here are a couple other things I've been thinking about along these lines...

1) blind defense... if I know that my opponent will always bet the flop, does that make me more inclined to play against him, or less? My instinct is that if he's making a mistake to always bet, that must mean I can play more hands.

2) if I feel that autobetting these situations is wrong, how can I change my own play to be more difficult to play against? In particular, what flops should I be checking after 3-betting, and after open-raising and getting it heads up with the big blind?


Lots to discuss. Pick out anything that strikes your fancy.

-Eric