Re: River decision with overpair.
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Not raising the turn here is a big mistake. There is still a likely chance of AT 9J ...
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You make some interesting points, but I think you are overstating the odds that he a) is aggressive enough to cap a draw out of position which does not include a flush draw, and b) is not aggressive enough to 3-bet the turn enough that raising is wrong. That's a fine line.
Personally, I don't see many players capping hands on draws out of position unless the draw is so big that the cap is made for value. Even then, it's not all that common, and without a read that this guy will do so, I think it's best to assume he will not by default.
When the diamond hits the turn, I feel I've gone almost into crying call mode. When the ten hits the river, I can't beat any typical holding. I mucked, but felt awkward about folding an overpair for 1 bet in a pretty good pot.
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