Thread: am I spewing?
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Old 07-05-2005, 05:15 PM
MrStretchie MrStretchie is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Victoria, Canada
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Default Re: am I spewing?

OK..
Betting out on the flop doesn't make sense. (Unless you knew UTG was a fool who'd call anything..) You've got 21 outs to TP or better here.. you want to trap them both in for as many bets as possible, not have UTG raised out..

So I'd CR the flop, but yes, if you can get it capped 3 ways, that's great.

On the turn, you Could still value bet 3-ways.. your straight draw outs are probably good. I'd count your overcards for 3 outs total, and the flush is good maybe half the time or a bit better.. (This really depends on whether UTG is a fool calling station, or whether he'd only call down like this with a strong draw.) So you've got something like 14 outs. 3 ways you're likely looking at about 0 EV, so it makes more sense to wait and exploit the river if you hit. If based on reads you figure the flush is good more often, a value raise might make sense here, but not a bet, for the same reasons as on the flop. Either way though, it probably makes sense to wait and exploit the much bigger edge on the river.

You didn't hit, so either fold *recommended*, or raise if you know you're against a fool who'd go nuts like this all the way then fold the river to a raise. Not very bloody often that'll happen though.. Don't call this river.
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