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Old 07-05-2005, 03:06 AM
soah soah is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 112
Default Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct

My first instinct was to fold but that it's really close. Part of that may be that my "instincts" are also aware that I can never be 100% certain about how my opponent will act so I tend to round down my implied odds a bit...

For the math... (I'm assuming you want us to do the math by hand/in our head?) I have about a 20% chance of hitting, and in those instances I will get my money in on the turn with roughly 80% pot equity.

If I fold on the flop I have 725 left.

If I call the flop and hit we will play a 1650 pot in which I have 80% equity, for a final pot equity of 1320ish.

If I call the flop and miss, then I fold and have 575 left.

I miss four times as much as I hit, so my final equity of calling on the flop is (.2 x 1320) + (.8 x 575) = 724

So the results are within a dollar of each other... so like I said, it's really close. =P

Actually, my equity calculations for calling the flop are probably slightly too high because the chances of hitting on the turn are a little less than 20%, and his redraw for the river is a bit better than 20% (to be complete it would also need to account for the possibility of him making a runner-runner flush against our straight, in addition to his boat outs, which is worth a couple percent more as well). So in the end, it's a close fold.

Disclaimer: I did not doublecheck my math.
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