[Bluffoon]

Great post. This feels close and the analysis shows it is close. You probably only need to be ahead 15% of the time to call down here. I think the chances this raise is a bluff or semi-bluff are better if the raiser has position (which is not the case here) but that may be offset somewhat by being able to get a free showdown once in a while when you have position. I prefer to call these close decisions down but I could see making an argument for folding with position, the reasoning being the chances of a semi-bluff free showdown type of play are diminished.