Re: Not to be results oriented but
oh I wasn't looking at the exact hand. I thought someone said it was 8-1.
ok here we go:
1. 6.2-1 immeditate odds. 7.2-2 to call down like you said. so he has to win at showdown 2/9.2 ~ 22% of the time
2. if he has 5 outs (which we'll assume are clean and ignore implied odds and hidden outs for now). he's about 8-1 (5/46) to hit those. so ~11% of the time he'll river this guy.
3. if he has to win 22% of the time, and he'll win via the river card 11% of the time, then he has to have the best hand the other 11% (22-11) of the time.
4. his opponent will suck out some portion of the time, but on this board in this situation it's unlikely he has that many outs. if he's bluffing he has none and if he's semibluffing he probably has an average of 6. if he has top pair he has 3. so we'll say he has 4 outs. so tack on 4/46 to the 11% we need to be ahead and we see we need to have the best hand right now ~20% of the time.
I forgot to tack on the chances his opponent will catch up in my last post, which led to a misleading number
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