Re: Bet or check this river?
Okay, I understand where we're confused. I don't care what Villain holds and folds, as long as he does it. I don't know this villain well enough to know if he got here with a better hand or not. He could have overcards, trying to incorrectly spike a pair. He could have a small pocket pair that he's calling down with the whole way. He could have a weaker Ace. There are too many possibilities. And he doesn't know me - he may think firing a final barrel is the sign of an overpair. There is just not enough information. So I'm not going to analyze any of this unless I have taken notes on this.
I consider the river bet to be a steal. Its not a value bet, but it can be +EV because of the size of the pot. You were analyzing whether the bet in a bubble; as if the pot were 0 BB. But it's not.
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