Re: Bet or check this river?
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This is nitpicky but, I think correct - please correct me if I'm wrong.
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you are wrong.
if it is less than 50%, the bet has negative expectation, so you should not make it. end of story. it has nothing to do with the rest of the pot. (continuing with 45/55%) Run it 100 times and you will lose 5 big bets. Why would you want to do this? It is unreasonable to think he might fold a better hand but will also call with a worse hand.
It must be greater than 50% for you to bet.
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