View Single Post
  #15  
Old 07-01-2005, 03:49 AM
Moovyz Moovyz is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: NC no poker here!
Posts: 24
Default Re: You are heads up at the fina WSOP ME table and pondering a deal...

This isn't a very good example of what you are trying to guage. You'd be better off posing the question by stating that both players have equal chips, or close to it and then see what kind of deals you'd offer against the different type of opponent. Perhaps a bigger ratio of blinds would make a better question as well.

The reason is that if your opponent has 90% of the chips, he'd be an idiot to offer any deal that gives you more than you'd get for second. He can raise all-in "blind" 3 times in a row, lose all 3 and still have 200 BB to play with (20% of the chips in play). The odds on him winning the the Lion's share of the money are better than the 66% indicated.

I remember reading an article that basically stated that if you hold a 9 to 1 or better chip position, you can safely go all-in on every hand until you lose the chip lead, then play normal. The article stated that this was a mathematically correct play (and even better play if you pick the best hands to play) because the money for 1st is often close to twice the amount for second. There was alot of math involved in the article, and I honestly can't quote the exact figures here, but it basically showed that when you dominate this much in chips, you CAN NOT lose money in the long run by betting every hand all-in because even if your hand is dominated, you usually still have a 20% or better chance of winning that hand and the odds of losing 3 in a row are offset by the payout and the fact that you can resume normal play if, and when you lose the chip lead. So that being true, who would offer a deal?
Reply With Quote