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Party 10-20

raise AdTh utg, 3 folds, blinds both call.

flop 6c5d6s. 2 checks, bet, sb calls, bb folds. sb is 31/12 (assume lots of hands, so a 10-20 player and stats kinda accurate). no other read.

turn Ac

5.5 questions

1) check, your move?

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My immediate response was "bet."

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2) what range of hands do you put sb on when he calls the flop?


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Mostly no-pair overcard hands, with a backdoor draw maybe. OESD. A pair of 5's c/r's you on the flop, but a 6 will often wait for the turn to c/r. Worse Aces will always call, and many times raise. A5 for 3pair will often raise but we are ahead of that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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3) what % of those hands call a turn bet?

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Any ace(AK/AQ 3bets pf, so only one we are behind is AJ maybe), a 5 that "slowplayed," a picked up club draw, or OESD.


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4) how likely is he to bluff river if you check turn (based on limited info provided)?


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Reasonably likely, but I'd prefer a specific read to go with the #'s - there are many 30/10 type players who, once they go into calldown mode, don't come back out to try and bluff. There are other players who will bluff if you look at 'em funny and they think you are weak. I'd say you've got a 40% shot at inducing a bluff.

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5.5) how likely is he to check-raise, i.e. what hands from your flop calling range will check-raise this turn (maybe this is a percentage of times), and what's you plan if he does check-raise?


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If he c/r's us on the turn, I put his hands like this: [6x:30% Ax:60% 2clubs/oesd:10%]

I call him if he c/r's me. These guys LOVE the turn c/r.

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I have some thoughts on these but want to see how my answers line up. Thanks a lot.

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Those are my thoughts. I'm interested in hearing other people's thoughts as well.

I like where you are going with this...against very aggressive/bluff happy opponents I am going to start mixing up my play by checking through the turn when I hit an A to encourage a bluff on the river. Thanks for the thought-provoking discussion.

Surf