[1800GAMBLER]

Now i just feel like typing a lot rather than writing my personal statement for university. Here's something out of my notes file that i writen to correct my own thinking when i found poker interesting. It's note form so it's difficult to follow. Hand ranges aren't realistic, they are made up to help for theory reasons.

PokerStars Game #1565620861: Hold'em Limit ($100/$200) - 2005/04/22 - 12:54:48 (ET)
Table 'Aralia' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: JayP ($8685 in chips)
Seat 2: bacplayer ($3461.50 in chips)
Seat 3: magicpitch ($7840.50 in chips)
Seat 4: PottedPlant ($4755 in chips)
Seat 5: Exclusive ($16571 in chips)
Seat 7: The Cooker ($4226 in chips)
Seat 9: #10 PELE ($3986 in chips)
Seat 10: dbocean ($2314.50 in chips)
Exclusive: posts small blind $50
The Cooker: posts big blind $100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JayP [5c 6h]
#10 PELE: folds
dbocean: raises $100 to $200 with A8s
JayP: folds
bacplayer: folds
magicpitch: folds
PottedPlant: folds
#10 PELE leaves the table
Exclusive: raises $100 to $300
The Cooker: folds
dbocean: calls $100
*** FLOP *** [Tc Jh As]
Exclusive: bets $100

Exclusive range: TT JJ AA AK AQ AJ = 9 + 24 + 9 = 42; KK QQ = 12. 42:12 7:2 loss:win rato; pot odds: 7:1.

KK QQ = 6 outs over 2 cards; 4:1 to improve to a better hand with KK QQ thus lowering our win % => 3/4 * 12 = 9. => 42:9 5:1.

So given we are getting 7:1 pot odds and we will win the hand 5:1 we should call

However 5:1 is our current pot odds, not our showdown pot odds. Yet if he has KK QQ we may be able to showdown getting 7:1 Meaning he will check both the turn and river with KK QQ, in that case we should call.

Yet, that's not very realistic, it's pretty rare to be in the hand against someone who you will know will check KK QQ on the turn; esp. in this hand.

So lets say we can assume 75% players check KK QQ on the turn here and 25% bet and we have no idea which group of players he hits into.

So this now makes it 75% of him having KK QQ (and not improving) we showdown for 7:1 yet 25% we may showdown for 9:3 or 3:1, which averages at 7 + 7 + 7 + 3 / 4 = 6, or 6:1. Meaning we get 6:1 showdown odds in a hand we'll win 5:1, thus we should call.

Ok, so just hightlighting the obvious, the higher the percentage of players who will bet KK QQ on the the higher our showdown cost and thus less profit.

i.e. if the player would always bet KK QQ on the turn our showdown cost vs KK QQ would be 3:1 and thus we would have to fold the flop.

So, anyone else noticing how crazy this is? The logic here is, because a player is now more likely to bet a hand that we are beating we now have to fold!

Well, imagine these two players were bots, we'll call the player with A8s Bot1 and the player with the range of hands Bot2. Imagine these bots are programmed to play against each other and they knew perfect each others hand range at all times, Bot2 knows Bot1 has Alittle, Bot1 in case 1. knows Bot2 will always check KK QQ on the turn and thus he can call the flop bet and get value on his Alittle yet in case 2. bot1 knows bot2 will always bet KK QQ and thus he can no longer call on the flop with Alittle because of the increased showdown cost.

So perfect strategy for bot2 would be to a high % of the time bet KK QQ on the turn so Alittle gets no value against him, the reason this works is because Bot2 has

HUGE protection on KK QQ because of the other hands in his hand group, TT JJ AA AK AQ AJ.

Perfect shania here is betting KK QQ against a players Alittle.

dbocean: calls $100
*** TURN *** [Tc Jh As] [3d]
Exclusive: bets $200


dbocean: calls $200
*** RIVER *** [Tc Jh As 3d] [2h]
Exclusive: bets $200
dbocean: calls $200
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Exclusive: shows [Ad Qd] (a pair of Aces)
dbocean: mucks hand
Exclusive collected $1697 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1700 | Rake $3
Board [Tc Jh As 3d 2h]
Seat 1: JayP folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: bacplayer folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: magicpitch folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: PottedPlant (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Exclusive (small blind) showed [Ad Qd] and won ($1697) with a pair of Aces
Seat 7: The Cooker (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: #10 PELE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: dbocean mucked [5h Ac]