Re: Can I possibly be ahead here?
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I'm obviously not a math whiz like Aaron, but it should be pointed out that a lot of your 2-pair outs will only get you a chop, and you're drawing dead often to a set (as much as the 1st hand looked like QQ when I first saw it, this one looks like 77).
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Whooops! That's a bad mistake to be making. A quick estimate would be about a .22 BB error and I'm too lazy to go back and run the numbers.
The way things are lined up in the original estimate, Hero is drawing dead 70% of the time, which I think is a far more bleak picture than it really should be. That's also why I think 25% is a fair (if not a little conservative) number to be giving villain for holding two pair not AK.
But as OP pointed out, these are reads and estimates based on experience, and we aren't looking at this with the same experience.
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