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Old 06-28-2005, 10:05 PM
dmmikkel dmmikkel is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 169
Default Re: Low Ceiling vs High Ceiling-SNG strategy(long)

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When the cards don't want you to win, then you have variance. And you have no say in this either. This is Low Ceiling. No range. No way to avoid variance in any way.

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No way to get around variance no matter how you play. Some forms have lesser varians, other more variance.

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you can play your opponents cards and take EV that does not belong to you.

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This makes no sense to me. At any given situation in any form of poker, there's one move that has the most EV. It's the move that make you the most money in this and every future hand. How can you get more EV than max EV?

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Low Ceiling takes EV that does not belong to you sure, the blinds

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Don't get this either. It's +EV to steal blinds. I know that and therefor the EV belongs to me.

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In Low Ceiling play the cards break even. This means the ROI for a person is not unlimited. There's only a set amount of ROI one can achieve by play Low Ceiling poker. You can do much worse but you can never do better.

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Cards break even in any game. Some games you just play them differently. Some say cards might not matter if you can outplay your opponent, but it does. If you can make it +EV calling his raise with 72o, then you're just playing 72o better than your opponent.

And ROI is never unlimited in any game. It is impossible. Unlimited ROI would mean you're getting infinite odds (obviously a good bet)

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To sum up what I think.

I think you somehow don't get what kind of math lies behind any form of poker because you keep talking about EV that doesn't belong to you (or EV that doesn't really exist) and unlimited ROI.

Basicly I think your biggest mistake is thinking like this:

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There is just one problem with it, your results are completely and totally dictated by the cards and the odds

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You're basicly saying some forms of poker are not dictated by cards and odds. Absolutely everything in poker is math and odds.

You may say it's a people game, but reads are nothing but numbers and variables. You may know what he has. You may know what he thinks you have. You may think you know what he thinks you have. Still it's 100% math. It's math that's so complex no one will ever master it 100%, but that doesn't mean it isn't math.

A move you make that is against all books, but that you make based on instinct and feeling, can still be mathematically proven to be the correct move.

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Edit: no point what so ever but this was my 109th post and i play the 109s. wee [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Better move up before my 215th post (what happens after that i don't dare think about :P)
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