[rydazzle]

SnG, 4 players left, blinds at 100/200

*approx* chip count:
Hero ~ 2500
SB ~ 2500
B ~ 1500
UTG ~ 500

Folds around to SB who goes all-in. I have A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in my hand. At this point I am not sure why this guy wants to get mixed up with the only other stack that can eliminate him (or if he's capable of that kind of thought). The table has been generally tight since we've been down to 4 players. My guess is JJ/QQ, but who knows, he could be as foolish/aggressive as 55-88. If he has a monster, would he play it like this?

I decide to fold, since there is a good chance I am an underdog and I don't want to risk an ITM. I did some hand analysis after the tourney was over and feel pretty good about the decision. Whats my chance of finishing ITM if I call? Say I start conservatively (in my favor) and give my opponent a 60% chance of a high pair and 40% of just some high connecters:

(define P(hand) as prob of beating "hand")

.6*P(high pair) + .4*P(big connectors) = .6(46%) + .4(63%) = 52.8%

Ok! 52.8% chance of winning the showdown, which is 47.2% chance of finishing not ITM. Keep in mind here there could be a higher chance he's on a high pair, or that he could be bluffing...but bluff the big stack with 300 in the pot? I doubt it.

So I have *roughly* a 45% chance of finishing out of the money if I call...If I fold, I feel my chances of getting that 500 chip guy out of the way is way better than 50%.

comments please.

R