[Willluck]

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I forgot to mention in my original post that checking behind on the turn is likely to induce a bluff on the river from the big blind, though most of you probably know that.

I'm not making anyone with an ace fold this turn - definetly not from a LAG in a big pot (who would probably checkraise my turn bet), and definetly not from the small blind. He has already devoted 5 small bets to the pot, calling down the entire way - if he picks up an ace on the turn, he's here to stay - a turn or river bet is not going to make him fold.

On the other hand I could be getting called down by a worse pair. If I were to bet on the turn I'm not betting again on the river unless I have a read on both players as being loose or aggressive. If only the LAG calls my turn bet, I'm betting again on the river because his aggression tells me I would have heard of an ace by now (if he raises me on the river I'm kicking myself in the balls and pressing the call button). Also, since he's loose, I'm confident that I am valuebetting the best pair on the river, as long as he doesn't raise the turn. This is the same principle as if I was up against two opponents - if they are both very loose I could be getting called down by a worse pair. If they are both very aggressive I would have gotten raised on the turn. If one is loose and one is aggressive (forgetting about other stats for this example), I still know that I'm most likely ahead on the river so I'm betting again.

Anyone who is a "tight" player will not smooth call a 3bet preflop in the small blind and then cold call on the flop unless he has a very strong hand and he is very passive (also - this flop is practically draw free making me even more inclined to believe that the unknown small blind is loose). I could have used this information to decide that this player is probably loose and I could have bet this turn again, knowing that I might get called by a worse pair but I can safely fold to a raise.

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You are still value betting draws and lower pairs on this turn, now you don't want to give gutshot a chance to draw out on you. What you have to do is bet this turn and dump to a raise.