[hobbsmann]

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Ok, so here are my counterthoughts:

If I had to choose between a J-high flop and an A-high flop with 3 limpers in the pot with me, I'd rather bet at the A-high. With the J-high flop, I'm going to get people who will call with as little as a single overcard and a backdoor draw or two. With the A-high flop, I have an excellent scare card and people are less inclined to call without an A in their hand.


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So this is a point that I was thinking about when I typed up my above response. I agree that on an A high flop you have a better chance of taking down the pot by betting out if people don't hold an ace, but there is also a higher percent chance that one of the limpers is holding an ace compared to a J. Also on an A high flop if you do get called you've got to think that your K outs are no longer good and thus the value of your hand is further decreased.

Say you take the exact same lines in both the J and A high flops (ie. bet out into 3 limpers) I'm really not sure which situation you will win a higher percentage of the time. On one hand, people are probably going to call more often on the flop with mediocre hands in the J high situation, but you have more equity there because of your K outs and by showing strength on both the flop and turn you'll get people to fold a wide range of non-J holdings by the turn a fair amount. In the case of the A high flop, you will probably get more folds on the flop, but when you do get called you probably have less equity and seemingly have less of a chance of winning the pot if it gets past the flop (I think I buy your argument of people being scared of aces).

It would be interesting if somebody could quantify the relative value of leading into 3 limpers in these two situations.