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Old 06-27-2005, 09:55 AM
party36master party36master is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Party 3/6
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Default Re: Daily Hand Post : AQs in the SB

[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/call, Donkbet/fold.

I think a turn checkraise pushes CO off a hand like KK, who was waiting for the turn to raise. If you bet, he may call you down or raise the turn.

Same comment for AJ, AT. Bet, he may raise.

Then donkbet the river, and you can safely fold to a second raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me go into this in more detail.
Comparing Bet/call Donkbet/fold to the turn checkraise.

Suppose CO has JJ. If I'm CO, I raise the turn. I can push hero off of KK, QQ, a weak-tight AQ, AJ, or AT. (AJ and AT are pre-flop 3 bet possibilities due to defending against the blind steal). Of course I fold to river donkbet.
So turn checkraise wins 1 bet, and Bet/Call Donkbet wins 2 bets.
Same type of analysis w/QQ KK.

Now suppose I'm CO with AJ or AT. I raise the turn. I don't fold, otherwise why did I call the flop. I raise, to gain small fold equity to push hero off of AQ, AJ, plus my hand is good against KK, QQ, JJ, etc.
The donkbet on the river is now tough. I consider calling.
Again, the turn checkraise wins 1 bet, since I would fold.
So turn checkraise wins 1 bet, Bet/call donkbet wins 2 or 3 bets.

As hero, against AK or a set, turn checkraise loses 2 bets, and Bet/call donkbet loses 3 bets.

I think if you believe CO will play this way, and spin the math, Bet/call donkbet is better.
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