Re: BB special
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I have often seen AA and KK played like this by .5/1 players.
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> 66% of the time?
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It's late and I'm tired, so this might be even dumber than usual. With no reads I think I am ahead on the turn 66% of the time on the turn vs. a random sat night .5/1 player. EDIT: That is until he raises me.
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The math is kinda weird on this one but I think we've got to have the best hand around 60% of the time to bet, since we're planning on calling the turn raise and the river bet UI. That means we're going to be winning 2 bets when ahead the majority of the time, and usually losing 3 when behind. Since occasionally he'll raise a worse hand on the turn here, it's not quite a 66% situation.
If he's capable of having AA and KK, he's equally capable of JJ and QQ.
So -- ahead of:
AA, KK (12), but you lose 17% of the time against them. Against QQ you lose about 26% of the time. AJ (12), QJ (12), and KJ (12) are all drawing to 5 outs but must be discounted somewhat due to the flop cap. JT just pulled ahead (and is discounted as well).
You're way behind: 44 (1), 88 (1), JJ (3), JT (9), J8 (6), and J4 (6).
I just don't think I see a person that we don't have a read on cap the flop quite often enough for bet-calling turn/check-calling river to be quite correct. I think it's close though.
Rob
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