[milesdyson]

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what about bet/3-betting the turn?

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Once you're raised on the turn, I don't think you're ahead 66% of the time, so you can't 3-bet for value. So checkraising the turn is the same as betting and then checkraising the river except when he has KJ, KK, QQ type hands and an A falls on the river you frequently miss 2 bets.

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yeah i agree, but you really think he has JJ that often when he raises the turn?

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I don't know. I don't get raised on this turn very often by one pair, maybe not. Also consider he could have 66. But these hands are unlikely (in terms of the number of combinations of them) compared to big jacks or overpairs when we bet turn, and some players do just get very aggro in blind steal situations. So I don't know, maybe not.

But the thing about missing 2 bets on the river when it's an A still applies. Although I suppose you just bet it. So it's one bet you miss, 3/46ths of the time.

So it all depends on how much he raises the turn with a worse hand, I don't know what the average amount is at 3/6 but I'd guess it's not that high.

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i totally get what you're saying. i've only played short handed 1/2 and 2/4 and i would get raised by AA/KK/QQ/AJ here a decent amount of time in blind steal situations (plus this guy has a pretty decent AF), but this is full ring 3/6 and perhaps you're right about the turn raise.

i agree that with a better read of the opponent we could optimize the play, and that against someone about whom all we know is that he's x/x/x, the postflop line in this hand appears to be best.