[jedi]

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On pages 130-131 he outlines the following scenario:

You call in EP with 44 , it gets raised in MP, 4 people call the raise, the small blind folds, and it's one bet back to you.

You are now getting 11-1 and have a clear call. This is obvious to most of us here. (To those who don't know yet, you are 7.5-1 to flop a set)

Suddenly, though, he contradicts himself in the next paragraph, saying that now you have to put in 2 bets PF making your actual investment 5-1 instead of 11-1.

I don't see how this can be right.

If you thought it would get raised initially, then you should fold it. If you were wrong, and it did get raised anyway, then you still have a clear call given all the action so far.


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On your 2nd action, you ARE getting 11-1 on your call. The money you put in earlier is in the pot, not yours, making this call correct. However, looking at the pre-flop action as a whole, you did put in 2 small bets, making the effective odds on the whole street 5-1. Your pre-flop mistake of limping in EP with 44 forces you to pay another bet (even though it's right). It's not a contradiction, but rather a difference in point of view. The fact of the matter is that you put in 2 bets with 44 out of position pre-flop.

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But wait, there's more....

Now he's actually saying that even if you flop the set, you should still be afraid. This completely confused me.

Page 132:

Same situation 44 in EP, Raise from MP with 6 callers. Flop comes Q84 rainbow.

We bet the flop and no one raises. This and the PF action is telling us that no one has a set. (These reads are assumed to be correct.)

Now suddenly, the fear hits.

1. We sure hope no one has a JT (looking for a 9) (Why not? It's a 4 Outer!)
2. We sure hope no one has Q8 (4 outs)
3. We sure hope no one has 55 (2 outs!)

I don't see the difference with this hand if he would have made your hand AA and the flop come AQ8 rainbow.



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Q8 and 55 have only runner-runner outs against you in this case. JT will be coming along anyways with their 4 outs.
I'm not quite sure why he doesn't want action from those hands though, but it does eat at your equity slightly.