Thread: Seeing Monsters
View Single Post
  #6  
Old 06-23-2005, 07:09 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: Seeing Monsters

Dave - It's not exactly a monster under the bed.

Four opponents saw the flop with you. There were 16 cards dealt to your four opponents. Hard to say at the level you're playing how much less likely an opponent would be to see the flop with 8XYZ than with various other starting hands. But anybody who did see the flop with 8XYZ would almost surely continue after a flop of 889 - but might not necessarily raise.

As the cards lie on the river, there are 43 unknown cards, of which 16 were dealt to your four opponents who saw the flop with you.

If there's a random chance of one of them having a hand with the case eight, the probability of encountering an eight in the hand of Button on the river is C(42,15)/C(43/16) = 0.372. The odds are roughly 5 to 3 against Button having the case eight if your four opponents had a random chance of having a hand with an eight.

There probably wasn't quite a random chance of an eight. Probably less. How much less at the limit you're playing? Who knows? I'd guess maybe a more realistic odds estimate might be 6 to 3 against, or about 2 to 1 against - something in that neighborhood.

You're certainly going to call with aces full. Thus whatever is already in the pot is yours if you have a winner.

The issue is purely how much you can extract from Button if Button doesn't have the case eight. If Button doesn't have the case eight, you might get nothing by betting - but you might collect from Button trying to steal the pot. And if Button does have the case eight, you're going to get hammered by betting.

So it's really very clear. You check and call here.

...only this and nothing more...

Buzz
Reply With Quote