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Old 06-22-2005, 09:56 PM
Catt Catt is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 998
Default Re: QUESTION: Implied Odds

"Implied Odds" is really just current pot odds, plus the additional bets you expect to win from your opponents on later streets when you hit.

I'm not following completely your question or your example (and I don't know what ESP as you're using it is), so I am going to simplify your example somewhat to make the point clear: BB bets, MP raises, there are 16 SBs in the pot when action is on you. You are confident that BB will not three-bet but will call one more bet to call MP's raise; you assign no value to your A outs. To "properly" call with just your gutshot, you really want 10.75 to 1 (or, since you're forced to call 2 bets, you want 21.5 to 2). The pot is only offering you 17 SBs (the 16 currently there plus the SB BB will put in to call MP's raise). To "properly" make this call based on pot odds alone, you'd need 4.5 additional SBs in the pot. And here is where implied odds come in to play: if you actually hit your 4-outer on the turn, do you think that you can win an additional 4.5 SBs (2.25 BBs) from your opponents? Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps BB will check the turn, MP will bet (1 BB), you will call and hope BB overcalls (another BB), or you will raise and hope that BB calls (another 2 BBs) or at least MP calls your raise (another BB). You hope at least one player will call your river bet. The point is, you need to earn another 2.25 BBs in some way to make your flop call "correct."

All this goes out the window on the turn when you miss -- once again you'll be faced with a decision to call or not call the expected bet, based on immediate pot odds and/or implied odds (but note that you have only one more street to collect bets to make your implied odds) to hit your gutshot. The odds situation on the flop has nothing to do with your turn decision -- all the prior money is now part of the pot.

It may be helpful to think of "implied odds" as "borrowing" future bets you reasonably expect to win when you do hit your hand, imagining them already contributed to the pot, and then determining if you imagination-enhanced flop pot offers sufficient odds to call the flop bets to you. Hope that helps.
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