[sam h]

As one might expect, journalists of different political outlooks on Iraq tend to come off like they are not even visiting the same country.

From recent reporting, however, it does seem clear that the US military in Iraq believes that they need more troops rather than less, and that the Iraqi security forces are still years away from being able to handle the security situation themselves. Combine this with the obviously growing distaste for the war in America and the administration's demonstrated willingness (not unusual for any administration) to sacrifice long-term interests for short-term political reasons, and it is not that difficult to imagine some problems down the line.

As a perceptive officer was quoted in a NYT story last week, "I think the drawdown will occur next year, whether the Iraqi security forces are ready or not," a senior Marine officer in Washington said last week. "Look for covering phrases like 'We need to start letting the Iraqis stand on their own feet, and that isn't going to happen until we start drawing down'."

So herein lies the rub for supporters of the war. Ultimately, the decision to go to war will be judged in retrospect in light of the future course Iraq takes. Most sober analysts realize that the country is still in a very precarious situation, not only because the insurgency is still active but also because the American presence also obviates to some degree conflict between the major ethnic groups in the country. Anybody who thinks these people will just easily get along is crazy, especially when the major issues of contention - the role of religion in government, the autonomy of different regions, and the future of Kirkuk - have yet to be addressed. Having a large American presence while these deals are hammered out and while people get used to living under a new set of rules is probably a very good idea.

If there is any chance to build a lasting democratic regime (and you should know from my previous posts that I am a skeptic), then surely we cannot cut corners because of the unpopularity of the war in America. Yet that is exactly what everything seems to be leading toward today.

First will come the triumphalist bullshit - ie Mission Accomplished.

Second will come the premature withdrawal.

Third will (probably) come the rise of sectarianism and the breakdown of democratic rule.

Fourth will come the historical revisionism of the "the war was a good idea, if only we had done it right" variety.