[AaronBrown]

Sklansky says you make money every time your opponents do something they wouldn't do if they knew your hand, not that you always do what you would if you knew your opponents' hands.

The draw order matters tremendously, even with only two players. Let's simplify the problem to focus on the essential mathematics. Suppose we played one-card lowball using only the Spades. Each of us gets one card, and I know yours, but you don't know mine. Each of us has one chance to throw our card away and get another. After that, the lower card wins the pot.

Say you draw first. If you stand pat, you know I'll draw if you have me beat, but not if I don't. So to win you need (a) my card to be higher than yours and (b) the card I draw to be higher. The probability of that is K*(K-1)/132, where K is the number of cards higher than your card.

If you draw, I'm going to draw with an 8 or higher, not with a 6 or lower, and with a 7 if your original card was higher than 7, not otherwise. So you'll throw away an 8 or higher, keep a 7 or lower.

If I have to draw first, you have to pick a maximum card you will hold for the case when I stand pat, and for the case when I draw. If I draw, you're going to draw with a 7 or higher, stand pat with a 6 or lower. If I don't draw, you throw away the 6 or higher, and stand pat with a 5 or lower.