[MisterKing]

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Mister King:

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I am 100% unable to offer incorrect odds on the flop via a raise. I've outlined that fact.

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You showed where a K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx would technically be correct in calling, but what about hands like Qx, or gutshots with no club? In addition, while they K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx is technically getting very close odds, they will not be closing the action with the maniacal retarded BB still being able to raise again.

YOu are obvioulsy correct that facing the field with 2BB vs 2sb in this largish pot is going to "protect" your hand better (at the cost of letting them draw on the flop cheaply. And the one thing you do have going for you in this hand is that the BB is maniacal, so it is likely that he will lead into you again on the turn if he is met with no resistance on the flop. If the BB was unknown, then not taking the flop opportunity to pop it would be a pretty big mistake, imo, as there is no guarantee he will lead the turn again.

I don't think your play is necessarily bad, and I think your position is blostered by the high likelihood of being bet into again on the turn. However, I do think that you underestimate the ability for a flop raise to actually "protect" your hand here.

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Good points -- in some cases I do agree that a flop raise is appropriate here. However the texture of the board and the nature of my opponents seems to me to demand delayed aggression.

I think all the Qx non-crub hands can call two cold on the flop, unless I play my hand face up and they have QT. They have five clean outs, getting 6.5:1 if I raise it. They need only 8:1 to call, so if they can count on picking up 1.5SB later in the hand when they hit (and with maniac BB in I think they can), then they need to call. The Qx club hands have ~6.5 (maybe 6.0 if you discount their BD club draw somewhat) outs and they're clearly getting enough to call two.

The gutshots with no crub, however, have to fold to two bets on the flop. As do the bottom pair hands, and pocket pairs searching for a two-outer. Those pocket pairs likely need to fold to one bet anyhow... though I guess KK could continue thinking maybe he's ahead some of the time, and maybe he makes a BD straight or set some of the time. I don't see KK being out there given the PF action.

So of all the likely hands for my opponents (club frush draws, Ax, club gutters, non-club gutters, and Qx), I can only reasonably get one (the non-club gutters) -- maybe two if you throw the weaker Ax hands in -- classes to fold for two bets on the flop. All the others have to call two bets. This is a compelling point, in my opionion. And there's another angle to all of this: if I raise the flop there is a chance BB doesn't bet into me on the turn, meaning I'll be in a really bad spot as far as the odds I'll have to give to the later position players. They could end up as high as 10:1 or so!