Re: Bluff raising the river
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1. QJo 60% favorite against a random hand, not against the hand of the UTG limper.
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The original poster describes the UTG limper as "extremely loose." His hand is probably quite close to a random one in value.
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2. there is a pretty high risk to get reraised by one of the 4 players yet to act, holding a FAR superior hand to QJo.
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In my playing experience, three-bets are fairly rare. I'll agree that if you are three-bet, it's likely that you are in big, big trouble, but I can't for the life of me figure out how you'd be able to prove that the probability of being three-bet is "pretty high." You might even get a hand that was going to raise behind you (such as ATo) to fold! That'd be great.
Preflop play is an interesting animal, because it is the one area in the game that lends itself to charts and absolutes and "if x, then y." But in actual practice, it's quite variable. Poker hands are not played in a vacuum. While it is usually incorrect to raise QJo, that doesn't mean that there aren't times where it is appropriate to do so. This is likely one of those times.
-McGee
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