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Old 06-20-2005, 01:33 AM
Boolean Boolean is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 26
Default Re: Two ways for runner runner, stay for the turn?

I've spent a little bit of time on this post, because I feel it's part of my game that I think I'd get a lot from if I understand this correctly. I'm by no means any math whiz, but I've spent some time and I've crunched some numbers which may indicate that this can be called (giving some certain (very strict) circumstances).

First, right now, Hero is getting about 13:1 to call this flop. With both backdoor draws, Hero has about a 8.6% chance to make his straight or flush on the river:

For the straight draw:
(8/47)(8/46)+(8/47)(4/46)=~4.5% chance by the river

For the flush draw:
(10/47)(9/46)=~4.1% chance by the river.
Total: 8.6%

Getting 13-1 might even warrant a call for this, but to prove we can possible call this, I've calculated the EV for a call in this position giving 3 very strict circumstances:

1. All of the callers will go to the river.
2. The flop raiser will raise on the turn and river.
3. If you make your straight/flush it's best, you will raise, and everyone else calls.

First question, is this a possible scenario?

If so, I give us 3 outcomes besides folding:
1. We call, we miss the turn and fold, losing -1 SBs
2. We call, we make a card on the turn, but we miss the river, losing -3 SBs
3. We call, we make our flush or straight, and we win 38 SBs (14+8+16 = 38)

For the first scenario, we'll hit the turn with one of our cards about 47% of the time, (4 kings, 4 queens, 4 eights, 4 sevens and the 6 remaining hearts for a total of 22 total outs. (22/47)=~.468 rounded up to 47%) so we'll miss approximately 53% of the time.

We've established that 8.6% of the time, we will make our straight or flush, and win on the river. So, of the remaining 47% we make our first card, 38.4% we'll miss it on the river, costing us 3 SBs.

EV formula:
(.53)(-1) + (.384)(-3) + (.086)(38)
-0.53 + -1.152 + 3.268 = 1.586

Is my math correct? And if so, that means the final pot on the river could be as small as 20 SBs and the EV would still be positive. Thoughts?
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