Re: Your maximum expectation
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think I have a reasonable data set now (150+ tourneys)
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Hmmmm. 150+ is absolutely nothing in terms of sample size for the question asked here. For instance, if you know anything about SNGs (sit-and-gos), where variance is much much much (add a few more of them) lower than on MTTs, 150 games is practically a laughable sample size. Some people are playing these amount of SNGs A DAY. Only when you get to few K of SNGs you start to get an accurate enough picture of your "true" ROI. It doesn't mean that after few hundreds you can't tell whether you're a winning player, but even the best players can run very very cold for few hundreds SNGs and only break even or so.
Now MTTS are much much more volatile, that's why 150+ tourneys sample is, no offence, ridiculous, if you want to come to any meaningful conclusions about your ROI, or ROI in general.
Edit: and that's why it's a very tough question.
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Well, what number do you think would be a valid sample size?
150 STTs a day? Ten-tabling for 14 hours a day? That seems to be a bit beyond reasonable limits...
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